geschrieben am 23. Februar 2011 von Jens Berger
Gestern wurde ich per Mail auf ein Cable aufmerksam gemacht, dass kürzlich vom Telegraph veröffentlicht wurde und in dem die US-Behörden sich über die US-Reise eines ägyptischen Aktivisten austauschen. Dieses Treffen fand im Dezember 2008 in New York statt und wurde von verschiedenen privaten Sponsoren und dem US-Außenministerium unterstützt.
Dabei sei angemerkt, dass solche internationalen Treffen keine Ausnahme sind und es häufiger passiert, dass Demokratie-Aktivisten aus Diktaturen, die vom Westen unterstützt werden, ausgerechnet von den Außenministerien dieser Länder zum Erfahrungsaustausch eingeladen werden. Ich selbst hatte im letzten Jahr das Vergnügen, auf einer Veranstaltung des auswärtigen Amtes vor einer internationalen Blogger-Gruppe (es war auch ein Vertreter aus Ägypten eingeladen) über das politische Web 2.0 in Deutschland zu referieren und im Rahmen der Veranstaltung auch Hintergrundgespräche mit den Gästen zu führen, die erstaunlicherweise mit mir mehr Überschneidungspunkte hatten als mit dem Auswärtigen Amt. Von daher kann ich die Überschrift des Telegraphs (“Geheime US-Dokumente enthüllen Unterstützung für Demonstranten”) auch nicht so recht nachvollziehen, zumal aus dem Cable klar hervorgeht, dass der eingeladene Aktivist alles andere als zufrieden mit der Politik der USA und der involvierten NGOs ist:
xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that Mubarak derives his legitimacy from U.S. support, and therefore charged the U.S. with \”being responsible\” for Mubarak’s \”crimes.\”
He accused NGOs working on political and economic reform of living in a \”fantasy world,\” and not recognizing that Mubarak — \”the head of the snake\” — must step aside to enable democracy to take root.
Ginge es nur um diesen Besuch, wäre das Cable wertlos und nichtssagend. Doch es enthält eine Passage, die hochinteressant ist und den meisten Expertenstatements diametral widerspricht:
6. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx claimed that several opposition forces — including the Wafd, Nasserite, Karama and Tagammu parties, and the Muslim Brotherhood, Kifaya, and Revolutionary Socialist movements — have agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections (ref C). According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, the opposition is interested in receiving support from the army and the police for a transitional government prior to the 2011 elections.
xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that this plan is so sensitive it cannot be written down.
Das Cable stammt – wie bereits erwähnt – aus dem Jahr 2008. Die präzise zeitliche Koinzidenz ist mehr als erstaunlich. Natürlich kann es sein, dass der Aktivist ein wenig “aufschneiden” wollte und zufällig richtig lag. Es kann aber auch sein, dass die Revolution in Ägypten keinesfalls so spontan vonstatten ging, wie es momentan scheint, sondern von der Opposition über lange Zeit generalsstabmäßig geplant wurde. Eine klare Antwort auf diese Fragen habe ich auch nicht, zumal ich für diesen Bereich der Landkarte nicht unbedingt mit Vorwissen glänzen kann. Dennoch will ich dieses interessante Dokument meinen Lesern nicht vorenthalten.
Das Cable in voller Länge:
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 002572 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA, R, S/P AND H NSC FOR PASCUAL AND KUTCHA-HELBLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2028 TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG SUBJECT: APRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS U.S. VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT REF: A. CAIRO 2462 B. CAIRO 2454 C. CAIRO 2431 Classified By: ECPO A/Mincouns Catherine Hill-Herndon for reason 1.4 (d ).
1. (C) Summary and comment: On December 23, April 6 activist xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed satisfaction with his participation in the December 3-5 \"Alliance of Youth Movements Summit,\" and with his subsequent meetings with USG officials, on Capitol Hill, and with think tanks. He described how State Security (SSIS) detained him at the Cairo airport upon his return and confiscated his notes for his summit presentation calling for democratic change in Egypt, and his schedule for his Congressional meetings. xxxxxxxxxxxx contended that the GOE will never undertake significant reform, and therefore, Egyptians need to replace the current regime with a parliamentary democracy. He alleged that several opposition parties and movements have accepted an unwritten plan for democratic transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim.
xxxxxxxxxxxx said that although SSIS recently released two April 6 activists, it also arrested three additional group members. We have pressed the MFA for the release of these April 6 activists. April 6's stated goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections is highly unrealistic, and is not supported by the mainstream opposition. End summary and comment.
---------------------------- Satisfaction with the Summit ----------------------------
2. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed satisfaction with the December 3-5 \"Alliance of Youth Movements Summit\" in New York, noting that he was able to meet activists from other countries and outline his movement's goals for democratic change in Egypt. He told us that the other activists at the summit were very supportive, and that some even offered to hold public demonstrations in support of Egyptian democracy in their countries, with xxxxxxxxxxxx as an invited guest. xxxxxxxxxxxx said he discussed with the other activists how April 6 members could more effectively evade harassment and surveillance from SSIS with technical upgrades, such as consistently alternating computer \"simcards.\" However, xxxxxxxxxxxx lamented to us that because most April 6 members do not own computers, this tactic would be impossible to implement. xxxxxxxxxxxx was appreciative of the successful efforts by the Department and the summit organizers to protect his identity at the summit, and told us that his name was never mentioned publicly.
------------------- A Cold Welcome Home -------------------
3. (S) xxxxxxxxxxxx told us that SSIS detained and searched him at the Cairo Airport on December 18 upon his return from the U.S. According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, SSIS found and confiscated two documents in his luggage: notes for his presentation at the summit that described April 6's demands for democratic transition in Egypt, and a schedule of his Capitol Hill meetings. xxxxxxxxxxxx described how the SSIS officer told him that State Security is compiling a file on him, and that the officer's superiors instructed him to file a report on xxxxxxxxxxxx most recent activities.
Washington Meetings and April 6 Ideas for Regime Change
4. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx described his Washington appointments as positive, saying that on the Hill he met with xxxxxxxxxxxx, a variety of House staff members, including from the offices of xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx), and with two Senate staffers. xxxxxxxxxxxx also noted that he met with several think tank members. xxxxxxxxxxxx said that xxxxxxxxxxxx's office invited him to speak at a late January Congressional hearing on House Resolution 1303 regarding religious and political freedom in Egypt. xxxxxxxxxxxx told us he is interested in attending, but conceded he is unsure whether he will have the funds to make the trip. He indicated to us that he has not been focusing on his work as a \"fixer\" for journalists, due to his preoccupation with his U.S. trip. 5. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx described how he tried to convince his Washington interlocutors that the USG should pressure the GOE to implement significant reforms by threatening to reveal CAIRO 00002572 002 OF 002 information about GOE officials' alleged \"illegal\" off-shore bank accounts. He hoped that the U.S. and the international community would freeze these bank accounts, like the accounts of Zimbabwean President Mugabe's confidantes. xxxxxxxxxxxx said he wants to convince the USG that Mubarak is worse than Mugabe and that the GOE will never accept democratic reform. xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that Mubarak derives his legitimacy from U.S. support, and therefore charged the U.S. with \"being responsible\" for Mubarak's \"crimes.\"
He accused NGOs working on political and economic reform of living in a \"fantasy world,\" and not recognizing that Mubarak -- \"the head of the snake\" -- must step aside to enable democracy to take root.
6. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx claimed that several opposition forces -- including the Wafd, Nasserite, Karama and Tagammu parties, and the Muslim Brotherhood, Kifaya, and Revolutionary Socialist movements -- have agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections (ref C). According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, the opposition is interested in receiving support from the army and the police for a transitional government prior to the 2011 elections.
xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that this plan is so sensitive it cannot be written down. (Comment: We have no information to corroborate that these parties and movements have agreed to the unrealistic plan xxxxxxxxxxxx has outlined. Per ref C, xxxxxxxxxxxx previously told us that this plan was publicly available on the internet. End comment.)
7. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx said that the GOE has recently been cracking down on the April 6 movement by arresting its members. xxxxxxxxxxxx noted that although SSIS had released xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx \"in the past few days,\" it had arrested three other members. (Note: On December 14, we pressed the MFA for the release of xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx, and on December 28 we asked the MFA for the GOE to release the additional three activists. End note.) xxxxxxxxxxxx conceded that April 6 has no feasible plans for future activities.
The group would like to call for another strike on April 6, 2009, but realizes this would be \"impossible\" due to SSIS interference, xxxxxxxxxxxx said. He lamented that the GOE has driven the group's leadership underground, and that one of its leaders, xxxxxxxxxxxx, has been in hiding for the past week.
8. (C) Comment: xxxxxxxxxxxx offered no roadmap of concrete steps toward April 6's highly unrealistic goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections. Most opposition parties and independent NGOs work toward achieving tangible, incremental reform within the current political context, even if they may be pessimistic about their chances of success. xxxxxxxxxxxx wholesale rejection of such an approach places him outside this mainstream of opposition politicians and activists.
SCOBEY02008-12-307386PGOV,PHUM,KDEM,EGAPRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS U.S. VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT